The problem reared in banking system in connection with necessity to fulfil in next year new requirements of NBU concerning adequacy of the capital is more than obvious, thinks the Chairman of the JSPPB "Aval" Oleksandr DERKACH.

As he said, at present time on the one hand there is an increase in active operations and reduction of profitability of bank business; on the other hand there is a necessity to accumulate capital.

As the banker noted, "situation when in spring — summer of the next year the total capital of banking system will not allow increasing active operations is not excluded theoretically.

So, as of today net assets of banking system make about 90 billion dollars, balance capital (without taking into account deductions and subordinated debentures) — about 11 billion hryvnas, and adequacy of the capital amounts to about 12-12,5 percents accordingly.

At the same time, as O.Derkach reported, the average quarterly gain of assets of banking system in 2003 makes 8-9 billion hryvnas, gain of the balance capital — 0,4 billion hryvnas.

Thus, as the head of "Aval" bank noted, with other things being equal to the end of the year the level of capital adequacy of domestic banks will come down to 11,5 percents, and by the end of the second quarter of 2004 — down to 10,4 percents, i.e. actually up to normative value. As a result of it, "without corresponding accumulation of capital banks will have no possibilities to expand active operations".

"I do not want to exaggerate, but there is the probability of termination of attracting deposits by banks and issuing credits", — the banker stressed.

As he said, the percentage policy of banks will be changed correspondingly — deposit rates will decrease and rates under credits will increase simultaneously.

According to O.DERKACH, the most likely way out for banking system is in capitalization of profit. On the one hand, banks will hardly manage to attract share capital of foreign investors, which probably will not come to Ukraine in the next one or two years. And on the other hand it is very difficult to attract money of Ukrainian investors: necessity of realization of large investment projects does not allow major banks to pay dividends. Furthermore, next year operations on buying shares of banks by its employees at the expense of the salary will be assessed. Thus, one more possibility to increase capitalisation will disappear.

"I do not exclude that in half-year some banks will have serious difficulties when fulfilling normative of capital adequacy", — the banker said. «Though for "Aval" bank the problem of lack of capital when accumulating assets will not arise, at least, during 7-8 months», — stressed he.